Spot The Alpha: A Comparison of Recent Free Mint Collections
0xFE0d
July 14th, 2022

Recently there has been a trend of free mint NFT collections and some of them have excelled by a huge margin. Some famous free mints include Goblintown, We Are All Going To Die, and Ill Poop It. Now let's look at their historical peak floor price.

Key Takeaways

  1. A high-demand free mint will be minted out in a very short period of time, making the majority of NFT buyers only able to purchase on the secondary market.
  2. A good free mint will have a high ratio of only minting 1 NFT per wallet to avoid manipulation.
  3. The survival of projects that have free mints will depend highly on their trading volume post mint.
  4. Free mint NFTs that started with large volume post mint are not likely to go further as more speculators and traders are trying to take some profits.

Latest Free Mint Collection and Their Peak Floor Price

We can see the outlier is Goblintown, which reached above 7 ETH in the past month. This is amazing considering the mint cost is 0 ETH. Some other NFT collections that reached above 1 ETH including Killabear, We Are All Going To Die, Ill Poop It NFT, and God Hates NFTees, and WZRDS. Others that have yet to surpass a 1 ETH floor include For The Culture, and Moonrunners.

What makes them different from each other? How do we spot the next trending free mint NFTs? To understand the whole process of free minting, we will need to analyze the period of the minting phase.

Latest Free Mint Collection Stats During Minting Phase

We break down the first 12 hours of the minting phase of these free mint collections, as it is one of the most crucial phases in determining if an NFT collection is in high demand. The 2 largeset spikes on the chart are from We Are All Going To Die and Goblintown, which minted out in less than an hour. Noticed how Goblintown minted out quick, in the 5th hour of minting, rather than being fully minted out in the first hour. The next one is We Are All Going To Die. It minted out in the second hour of the minting phase.

Next, we look at the ratio of how many wallets only minted 1 free NFT of each collection. Other than Moonrunners, Ill Poop It, and Killabear, the rest had over 90% of minters with only 1 NFT minted free. This guarantees a fair distribution in each wallet and reduces the risk of manipulation by certain groups of NFT traders. What comes next is also crucial in the survival of the free mint NFT collections.

Free Mint NFT Collection Post Mint Stats

After the minting phase, NFT buyers can only purchase those NFTs on the secondary market. The graph above shows the volume in the first 48 hours, post-minting phase. There are 3 spikes of volume that are worth noting. The first spike happened in the first 8 hours of the WZRDS and We Are All Going To Die. The second spike is during 16-28 hours post mint of the same collection, We Are All Going To Die. The last spike observed is from Goblintown NFT. Recall only Goblintown survived and went above 2 ETH compared to the rest of the free mint NFT collections. What can we learn from this chart? Those collections that started with large volume slowly decayed and the floor went underwater.

From the Holder Trends for Goblintown, we are able to see Whale Holders are slowly increasing instead of a huge spike, compared to We Are All Going To Die. The Whale Holders in We Are All Going To Die NFT dropped from the top and decrease rapidly.

The chart above shows the historical average sale price in the first 48 hours after the minting phase. We Are All Going To Die NFT rose very quickly to more than 1 ETH compared to the rest in the first 48 hours, but it also decays very quickly. Observe that Goblintown NFT works exactly opposite to We Are All Going To Die. It started slowly in the first 24 hours and then began its momentum and sustained along the way to 2 ETH and above.

One of the reasons We Are All Going To Die rose quickly is because it launched after Goblintown. Buyers and traders are FOMO-ing into the next free mint project hoping it will go as far as Goblintown. However, too many users FOMO'd into We Are All Going To Die, causing it to be unsustainable as degens are just trading rather than holding. This is also the case for WZRDS. WZRDS launched after We Are All Going To Die NFT as free mint and the huge volume in the first 8 hours after minting is overwhelming. The volume for WZRDS is decaying super quickly and now has no volume for it causing its floor price to stay the same.

In the first 48 hours post-mint, Goblintown is sitting at the top with the highest number of unique buyers and sellers. The number of unique sellers are more than the number of unique buyers for almost all free mint NFT collections. This is significant as it shows strong demand for the NFT collection and that plenty of users are interested in it. Other than that, we also observed a similar number of unique buyers and sellers for Moonrunners, We Are All Going To Die, Ill Poop It, and WZRDS.

Daily Max Price also gives us a hint about the strong demand of an NFT collection. In the first 48 hours, we can see the majority of outliers came from We Are All Going To Die and Goblintown. An extreme outlier is needed for the collection to go above and be sustainable.

Conclusion on the Latest Free-Mint Collections

Free mint NFTs are a new way to open up to new communities as it cost 0 ETH to join. A better free mint NFT collection needs to be over-delivered and under-promised. This will make the minters become hodlers and make it sustainable. Nevertheless, free mint means the NFT is free of cost, and users will constantly take a profit and sell it. One way to prevent getting undercut is through more research and analysis of the stats during minting and during the first few days after minting.

Note: The above information is for informational purposes only. Investing in digital assets such as NFTs and cryptocurrency brings with it a high degree of risk. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. NFTGo.io does not provide financial advice and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of investing in digital assets.

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